SPY Trends and Influencers September 27, 2014
- Posted by Greg Harmon
- on September 27th, 2014
A weekly excerpt from the Macro Review analysis sent to subscribers on 10 markets and two timeframes.
Last week’s review of the macro market indicators suggested, as we closed the books on the September Options cycle and moved into Fall, that the equity markets were still strong but a bit tired. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue lower along with Crude Oil ($USO). The US Dollar Index ($UUP) continued to look strong while US Treasuries ($TLT) were bouncing in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) was also strong and looked better to the upside while Emerging Markets ($EEM) were biased to the downside. Volatility ($VIX) looked to remain subdued keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s $SPY, $IWM and $QQQ. The SPY and QQQ looked the strongest but on the weekly timeframe, with some cracks on the daily charts. The IWM looked weak in the short run and likely to continue towards the bottom if its consolidation zone.
The week played out with Gold holding up over the round number 1200 while Crude Oil bounced and started higher. The US Dollar continued its move higher and Treasuries extended their move up. The Shanghai Composite muddled along sideways until pressing higher late in the week while Emerging Markets continued their slide. Volatility popped higher, but remains at low levels. The Equity Index ETF’s started the week lower and made 1 month lows before a slight recovery Friday. What does this mean for the coming week? Lets look at some charts.
The SPY started the week lower, moving under the 20 day SMA. From there the 50 day SMA gave it a brief respite before heading back lower Thursday. Friday printed an inside day, or Harami, over the 100 day SMA. The RSI continues to trend lower with a MACD falling on the daily chart. These support more downside. The 100 day SMA below has been about where pullbacks have stopped the 2 years and will be in focus this coming week. The weekly chart shows a touch at rising trend support that has been in place since October 2011. The RSI is falling but in the bullish zone with a MACD that has crossed down and falling. More downside in store? There is support at 196.50 and 195 followed by 194 and 193. Resistance higher comes at 198.30 and 199 followed by 200 and 201.50 before 201.85. Pullback Continues in Uptrend.
Closing out the 3rd Quarter, the equity indexes are in retrench mode but without major damage yet. Elsewhere look for Gold to bounce around and possible rise in the downtrend while Crude Oil has a similar read with a reversal in the works, maybe. The US Dollar Index remains on fire, and maybe a little too hot in need of a rest while US Treasuries are moving higher. The Shanghai Composite remains strong and looks to go higher while Emerging Markets are biased to the downside. Volatility looks to remain subdued but with a risk higher keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ. The indexes themselves are looking better to the downside in the short run, with the IWM near support and the QQQ strong on the longer scale with the SPY likely to see a bit more downside. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.
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Gregory W. Harmon CMT, CFA, has traded since 1986 and held senior positions including Head of Global Trading, Head of Product Development, Head of Strategy and Director of Equity. (More)
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