SPY Trends and Influencers August 15, 2015
- Posted by Greg Harmon
- on August 15th, 2015
A weekly excerpt from the Macro Review analysis sent to subscribers on 10 markets and two timeframes.
Last week’s review of the macro market indicators suggested quiet, heading into the week with news and earnings dry up. And Equities could use some quiet time to steady themselves.
Elsewhere looked for a possible bounce out of Gold ($GLD) in its downtrend while Crude Oil ($USO) continued lower. The US Dollar Index ($UUP) looked to continue consolidation with an upward bias while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued higher. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) remained in broad consolidation in the pullback while Emerging Markets ($EEM) looked like they may break a 6 year range to the downside.
Volatility ($VXX) looked to remain subdued keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s $SPY, $IWM and $QQQ, despite the moves lower the prior week. Their charts showed further short term weakness possible but the Hammer candles could confirm a short term bottom. On the longer timeframe the IWM remained weakest with the SPY consolidating and the QQQ looking strong.
The week played out with Gold starting higher, moving back over 1100 while Crude Oil continued to the downside. The US Dollar moved slightly lower in consolidation while Treasuries continued the trend higher. The Shanghai Composite pushed slightly higher while Emerging Markets broke a six year channel to the downside.
Volatility held a tight range, little changed on the week. The Equity Index ETF’s started the week well but gave up the gains immediately, ending the week little changed from last Friiday. What does this mean for the coming week? Lets look at some charts.
SPY Daily, $SPY
The SPY started the week gapping higher, confirming the Hammer candle that ended the prior week. Monday was as far as it got though as Tuesday saw a move lower to the 150 day SMA and then a spike lower Wednesday before closing slightly higher. Thursday saw a Spinning top doji, reiterating the indecision. But then the week ended with a move higher Friday, confirming the Spinning Top higher.
All that left the SPY up 68bp on the week and stick right in the middle of the 6 month range. The daily chart shows the RSI holding at the mid line with the MACD in a slight decline. The whole daily picture says more sideways in a range. The weekly chart shows the long consolidation with the tightening range. The RSI on this timeframe continues to hold over the mid line, in the bullish zone, with the MACD falling.
The 50 week SMA and lower Bollinger Band seem to be acting as support. There is support lower at 208 and 206.40 followed by 204.40. Resistance higher comes at 210.25 and 211 followed by 212.50 and the prior highs. Continued Sideways Consolidation in the Long Term Uptrend.
SPY Weekly, $SPY
Heading into August Options Expiration week the equity markets look to consolidating in the short term and better long term. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue the bounce in its downtrend while Crude Oil just continues lower. The US Dollar Index seems content to move sideways but with a short term downward bias while US Treasuries are biased higher. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue to consolidate in the longer uptrend while Emerging Markets look ugly with more downside to come.
Volatility looks to remain subdued keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ, despite their failure to move higher last week. Their charts show weakness continuing in the IWM and consolidation in the SPY in QQQ short term. All look better longer term with the QQQ strongest followed by IWM and then SPY. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.
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Gregory W. Harmon CMT, CFA, has traded since 1986 and held senior positions including Head of Global Trading, Head of Product Development, Head of Strategy and Director of Equity. (More)
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