SPY Trends and Influencers April 6, 2013
- Posted by Greg Harmon
- on April 6th, 2013
Last week’s review of the macro market indicators suggested, heading into the new Quarter look for Gold ($GLD) to consolidate or pullback in its neutral channel while Crude Oil ($USO) continues to March higher. The US Dollar Index ($UUP) seems content to move sideways while US Treasuries ($TLT) consolidate and are biased lower. The Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) looks sick while Emerging Markets ($EEM) are biased to the upside in the short run at support. Volatility ($VIX) looks to remain subdued keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s $SPY, $IWM and $QQQ, despite the new highs created recently. The QQQ looks the best on a longer scale while the SPY is better very short term.
The week played out with Gold continuing lower and finding long term support while Crude Oil put in a short term top and pulled back. The US Dollar did continue sideways with a downward drift while Treasuries broke their consolidation, but to the upside. The Shanghai Composite consolidated the move lower while Emerging Markets gave up their gains rolling over. Volatility bounced off of the lows but remained subdued and near resistance. In the Equity Index ETF’s the SPY made new multi-year highs and the QQQ 6 month highs before giving back some ground late in the week while the IWM continued its pullback. What does this mean for the coming week? Lets look at some charts.
The SPY made a new intraday high Tuesday, just below the all time high at 157.52, before pulling back to support Friday at 153.50. The Hollow Red candle Friday shows a strong intraday trend higher, that closed the gap down to start the day. The Relative Strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is trending lower but remains in bullish territory but the Moving Average convergence Divergence indicator (MACD) is continuing to move lower on the signal line and histogram on the daily chart. Downside risk remains. The weekly picture shows continued consolidation after the move higher off of the wedge break out allowing the RSI to work off a technically overbought condition. The MACD is leveling on this timeframe though suggesting that any rollover in it may bring the price down. Support comes at 150 below and resistance is found higher at 156.80 and 157.52. Continued Broad Consolidation with a Chance of a Pullback.
Heading into next week the markets are decidedly weaker but not giving up yet. Look for Gold to continue to bounce toward 1600 while Crude Oil moves higher in its triangle consolidation. The US Dollar Index looks to pullback in the uptrend while US Treasuries are back in the consolidation zone and biased higher. The Shanghai Composite and Emerging Markets remain biased to the downside. Volatility looks to remain contained keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ, but all look better to the downside on a very short term basis, with the QQQ strongest on the weekly timeframe. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.
Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview April 5, 2013
Join the Dragonfly Capital Views Premium Membership
Its Time For a Sale at Dragonfly Capital!
And what better time than during March Madness. The Annual subscription rate for the Premium Dragonfly Capital Views Service, will be cut by 20% to $600. That is nearly 45% off of the monthly rate for a year! Follow this link to start your subscription, with free 7 day trial, today.
Want to learn more about Dragonfly Capital Views?
Dragonfly Capital Views Performance Through March 2013 Expiry
If you like what you see above sign up for deeper analysis and trading strategy by using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits page.
The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.blog comments powered by Disqus
Gregory W. Harmon CMT, CFA, has traded since 1986 and held senior positions including Head of Global Trading, Head of Product Development, Head of Strategy and Director of Equity. (More)
- SPY Trends and Influencers March 25, 2017
- Macro Week in Review/Preview March 24, 2017
- How This Week’s Top 10 Performed, March 24, 2017
- The Pitchforks are Out
- Premium Earnings 3-23-17: KB Home and Micron Technology
- More Upside for Gold… Against the Euro
- Premium Earnings 3-22-17: PVH and Accenture
- Copper is Coiled for a Move
- Premium Earnings 3-21-17: Fedex and Nike
- Does the Stock to Bond Allocation Need a New Catalyst?
Dragonfly Capital Updates