Celebrating A Year of the Nasdaq 100

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With two weeks to go in October, the Nasdaq 100 is basically unchanged over the last 12 months. Yes it is up a bit, but if you start the clock following the gap up on October 23, 2015, it is less than 5 points above. That is a positive but hardly a statistic to make you all happy about the market. the path has not been an easy one though and it is that path that is worth examining to glean insights to the possible future path.

There was a plateau to end 2015. this happened under the all-time high levels from the 2000 spike. The year opened with a push lower, a first rejection at the all-time highs. It was a large drawdown, nearly 20%. Ad then the reversal higher initially came to a lower high. A retracement of only 78.6% of the move down. Four months in a channel then were followed by a break out to the upside. this break out ran to the early 200’s highs but could not get through.

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But this time there was not a major pullback. A short pullback to the 88.6% retracement of that early year move lower found support and quickly bounced. Then new all-time highs were achieved. After holding at all-time highs for two weeks there was another short pullback this week. As I write it looks to be reversing back higher with follow through in the pre-market Friday. This sets up a higher low after a higher high at the retest of the full retracement of the early year move lower. And it also sets up a search for new all-time highs in the coming weeks.

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