Bonds into the Gap

One thing that stuck with long after I returned from living and working in London was from the Underground system. Many of the underground stops are on curves leaving a significant gap between the cars and the platform. The English recognized this but they did not spend millions of Pounds to try to fix it. Their solution was to pipe in a recorded message, “Mind the gap”. It repeats the entire time the train is in the station.

That message comes to mind now when I look at the chart of the US Treasury Bond ETF, $TLT. The chart below shows the price of the ETF moving into the gap that was left open following the election in November. This creates an interesting set of circumstances for Bonds. A move into the gap means a move above the consolidation and therefore attracts buyers. It also will be looked at skeptically by many traders who see a gap fill as an opportunity to get short Bonds.

So which will it be? Unfortunately the other indicators offer both positive and negative biases. The RSI is in the bullish zone and rising, but it is also in overbought territory where pullbacks often begin. The MACD is rising and also right at the point where price reversed the last time. There was also a Golden Cross made at the beginning of the week, when the 50 day SMA crossed up through the 200 day SMA.

Despite the mixed picture you must give the bias to further upside. Price is rising. The RSI has not yet turned and can always get more overbought and the MACD has a long way to go to the June high. Trends are trend until they aren’t anymore. This one still is. It may reverse upon a gap fill, but that is still more than 2% higher. So do mind the gap. But until then it is an uptrend.

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The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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