Bonds are Down, But not Out Yet

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on November 1st, 2016

The death of US Treasury bonds has been anticipated for at least 2 years. Ever since the Federal Reverse stated that they would stop pressing the accelerator pedal all the way to the floor, someone has come out to talk about how the 20 year bull market in Bonds has come to an end. And every time they have been wrong. Now it is widely anticipated that the FOMC will raise interest rates, not tomorrow, but in December. Will this be the catalyst to finally knock Bonds off of their highs?

The chart below suggests that we may need to wait quite some time to find out. A top is never known at the point of inflection. It can be guessed at but until it is confirmed you can never be sure. Look at July 2015 for example. After Bond prices started to fall in April 2015 they found a bottom 3 months later and rallied to new highs. The top in July 2016 may prove to be the turning point. But at this point Bonds have not even made a lower low yet. No confirmation.

And when will that confirmation come? A move below the June 2015 low would be a start. But even then Bond prices would only be in the middle of a 20 year rising channel. It would take a move under the channel, roughly parallel to the 100 month moving average for a break down. And then a break below the December 2013 low for confirm it. That is 25% lower than today’s values. Many will already have taken credit for calling the top by then. But then many have already taken the credit for the tops that have not happened over the last 2 years as well. Watch prices for proof, not nice suits and smart sounding words.

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