A Key Test in Emerging Markets

The Caribbean islands are in a shambles with this hurricane season seemingly coming all in a 2 week span. Earthquakes in Mexico continue to rock the country. The Korean Peninsula is raging with saber rattling. Troubles abound wherever you look. And amidst this back drop Emerging Market stocks have been steadily rising. But today may be a key test for them as markets drift into the end of the quarter.

The chart below of the Emerging Market ETF explains why. It shows the run up in price since December. Key to this chart is the 50 day SMA. Once the price crossed this moving average at the start of the year the 50 day SMA has been support for all pullbacks. Coming into quarter end it is pulling back to that line again. A break down would signal a reversal.

This is also happening at the resistance zone that has been in place since 2011. For 6 years it has failed to move over the red zone. Momentum has faded, with the RSI running back toward 40. This is where it has found support before though. The MACD is also pulling back but is still well above where it has bottomed in the past.

None of these factors signal a sell right now. But a continuation under the 50 day SMA with the RSI moving under 40 and the MACD continuing lower together would add a lot of weight to the peak in September being a significant top. Time to sharpen your pencil and keep a closer look.

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The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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