What Makes an Oversold Stock Attractive
- Posted by Greg Harmon
- on September 3rd, 2013
Many stocks sell off. Sometimes the sell off gets overheated and turns into a rout. This is when it becomes oversold. But what does oversold mean and when it is attractive? Oversold from a technical standpoint can be as simple as having a Relative Strength Index (RSI) under 30. But that does not make it attractive. Take a look at the two stocks below Aeropostale, ($ARO) and Travel Centers of America ($TA). Both we beaten up very badly on their earnings yet one looks like a turn around in the making while the other looks like it cold just keep getting worse.
Aeropostale had its RSI cross the 30 level to the downside a while ago. And what has happened to it since then? It just keeps moving lower. But the RSI is also continuing lower. Have you ever seen the RSI under 10? Well keep watching it is getting close. Look at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (MACD) as well. The histogram is improving but the MACD line continues lower with no real sign of a cross in the near future. Finally the accumulation/distribution statistic sold off hard on earnings and also is continuing lower. Traders are still selling it. An oversold condition will not stay oversold forever, but it it can stay oversold longer than you can remain solvent. Stay away from this one.
Travel Centers of America is a stark contrast. After moving lower on earnings and the RSI falling under 30, it has stopped the fall on the RSI and price and is leveling, maybe even rising slightly on the RSI. The MACD has moved to positive on the histogram and the and has crossed the signal line positive. Finally the Accum/Dist statistic has also leveled. The full mosaic is not a reason to buy this stock yet. But it is a reason to put it on your watchlist for a break in price higher over 8.00 to get long.
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Gregory W. Harmon CMT, CFA, has traded in the Securities markets since 1986. He has held senior positions including Head of Global Trading, Head of Product Development, Head of Strategy and Director of Equity. (More)
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