Dow 20,000 is a Possibility in 2013
- Posted by Greg Harmon
- on May 8th, 2013
With the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing over the 15,000 mark for the first time ever, it begs the question, just how high can it go? This will not be a 200 page book on the subject using historical P/E ratios or other measures. A simple Harmonic pattern shows that a reasonable target is 16,810 and that 20,770 is within the realm of possiblility. Take a look.
The move off of the March 2009 low to the peak at 12,876 in May 2011 took 2 years and two months. Using a simple AB = CD pattern applied to the Monthly chart of the Dow ($DJIA, $DIA) gives initial target in December of 2013 to 16810, also a 2 year and 2 month run higher. But these patterns often extend by 127% or 161.8% of the initial leg. In that case the target could be as high as 18,540 or even 20,770 at year end. If you think that is crazy, then consider that the two peaks at that point could be part of a 3 Drives Pattern. This would give the corresponding targets in July 2016 of 19,854 on a straight AB=CD, 25,165 at a 127% extension and 33,400 at a 161.8% extension, assuming the same 20% pullback for 5 months as happened in May 2011 occurs following December 2013. One tool, one view.
Want to learn more about Dragonfly Capital Views?
Dragonfly Capital Views Performance Through April 2013 Expiry and sign up here.
If you like what you see above sign up for deeper analysis and trading strategy by using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits page.
The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.blog comments powered by Disqus
Gregory W. Harmon CMT, CFA, has traded in the Securities markets since 1986. He has held senior positions including Head of Global Trading, Head of Product Development, Head of Strategy and Director of Equity. (More)
- Analysis and Trade Ideas for Tempur Sealy Earnings
- Premium Earnings 7-30-15
- 5 Reasons to buy the Transports…right now
- Analysis and Trade Ideas for Whole Foods Earnings
- Premium Earnings 7-29-15
- The Fed, inflation and me
- Analysis and Trade Ideas for Twitter Earnings – Unlocked
- Premium Earnings 7-28-15
- How to gauge the downside in the S&P 500
- Looking at Home Depot to remodel my portfolio