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Macro Week in Review/Preview March 1, 2013

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators suggested, moving into the last week of February that the markets gave a wake up call, but then hit the snooze button. Gold was the exception testing long term support while Crude Oil pulled back in the uptrend. The US Dollar Index looked to continue its move higher with US Treasuries consolidating in the short term downtrend. The Shanghai Composite and Emerging Markets were biased to the downside as well. Volatility looked to remain low keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ. The charts showed potential for a short term pullback in the SPY and IWM but the longer term looked to the upside. This pullback could be triggered by a continued strong rise in the US Dollar through the nearby major resistance, Gold and Oil turning long term bearish, or Treasuries reversing higher. The QQQ however looked to be comfortable back in its channel within the long term consolidation. Its eventual breakout could be the key to the long term market direction.

The week played out with Gold starting higher only to fail while Crude Oil continued the downward move. The US Dollar broke higher out of the range while Treasuries rebounded to the upside. The Shanghai Composite found support and bounced while Emerging Markets settled over long term support. Volatility peeked higher again but sold off to end the week only slightly higher. The Equity Index ETF’s fell hard to start the week but recovered well, working back over 2/3 of their moves lower. What does this mean for the coming week? Lets look at some charts.

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