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Macro Week in Review/Preview February 22, 2013

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators suggested, heading into the Presidents Day shortened week Gold looked to continue lower toward the bottom of the long term channel as Crude Oil consolidated in the move higher. The US Dollar Index looked to continue towards a test of the top of a broad consolidation with US Treasuries consolidating but biased lower. The Shanghai Composite was biased to the upside and Emerging Markets were biased to the downside short term in their rising trend. Volatility continued to look to be no factor creating an environment for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ, to move higher. Their charts agreed, all with a bias higher, with the IWM strongest followed by the SPY and then the QQQ. A hard reversal on Treasuries or major move higher from the US Dollar seemed to be the only outside influencers that could derail the equity move higher.

The week played out with Gold continuing lower before stalling just over support while Crude Oil pulled back to support. The US Dollar broke higher in a meaningful way while Treasuries continued their consolidation below resistance. The Shanghai Composite began a pullback while Emerging Markets took their queue from broad equities, dropping after the Fed minutes were released. Volatility bounced off of the lows but sold off to end the week well off the highs. The Equity Index ETF’s fell quickly after the release of the Fed minutes Wednesday but recovered nearly half of the losses Friday. What does this mean for the coming week? Lets look at some charts.

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