The Germans are Getting Crabby
- Posted by Greg Harmon
- on January 16th, 2013
The German economy has been the rock of Europe and the envy of many nations. And their desire and ability to keep the Euro together over the last 18 months has been nothing short of heroic. The continual sacrifice is comparable to that of a mother neglects herself to give her all to her children. It is no wonder that after working under this type of stress for so long that Germany is getting a bit crabby, right. I mean how long could you do it? Oh, but this is a good thing. Let me explain. The chart below is the weekly chart for the German DAX ($DAX, $EWG) and it is exhibiting a Deep Crab pattern. Getting crabby. There are several reasons why this is important to recognize. Over the past 2 months many have recognized that the German market was on the verge of making new
highs. And in uncharted territory there several ways to measure a potential for the move higher. Fibonacci extensions, Elliot Wave Techniques, Measured Moves. But the Deep Crab pattern, nested in Harmonic trading, also gives a potential target. In fact it gives two. And what may be more interesting it gives an estimate of when the top may happen. The chart may look complicated and anything but like a Crab but it is really just an ABCD pattern with the initial two retracements defining a potential terminal point D. In this case the Crab suggests that D will be near 10867 as a 161.8% extension of the XA leg. It also suggests that it could be at 10980 as a 224% extension of the BC leg. These create a tight range, well above the current levels. But it also gives an estimate of the timing for this to play out from the symmetry of the pattern. The time from X to B of nearly 4 years suggest the pattern could complete from B to D by mid 2015. The price targets are more important than the timing but isn’t it nice to know that it may be 2 more years to get there?
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Gregory W. Harmon CMT, CFA, has traded in the Securities markets since 1986. He has held senior positions including Head of Global Trading, Head of Product Development, Head of Strategy and Director of Equity. (More)
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