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Macro Month in Review/Preview December into January 2013

Last month in this space my Monthly Macro Review/Preview had the monthly outlook suggesting continued consolidation in their ranges for the metals Gold and Copper, along with Crude Oil. Natural Gas retained the bullish bias but with topping signs. The US Dollar Index and US Treasuries both looked to continue a pause in their long term uptrends, with the Dollar biased lower. Foreign markets were mixed with the Shanghai Composite looking horrible and the German DAX very good, but Emerging Markets in consolidation. Volatility could go either way but looked to remain above the lower range experienced in the last six months with the VIX in a narrow range between 15 and the low 20’s. With low volatility, the Equity Index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ were set up to continue higher in the coming months, but the current consolidation might continue for a little first. A major move by the Dollar or Treasuries lower or the Shanghai Composite higher could boost US Equities, whereas renewed strength in the Dollar or Treasuries could create a pullback. How does an additional month impact the longer term picture? Let’s look at some charts.

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