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Macro Week in Review/Preview November 30, 2012

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators suggested, coming out of the Thanksgiving holiday the markets looked set up for a run higher into the end of the year. Gold looked higher in its neutral trend while Crude Oil was set to head higher. The US Dollar Index appeared biased lower while US Treasuries also looked better lower. The Shanghai Composite was biased lower but mindful of a possible double bottom, while Emerging Markets resumed their consolidation under long term resistance. Volatility looked to remain subdued keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ, and their charts seemed to agree, with the lone caution being the recent move higher was on decreasing holiday week volume. Let price guide not volume.

The week played out with Gold getting hit instead while Crude Oil stayed in its narrow range. The US Dollar did move lower finding a floor near 80 while Treasuries consolidated at a slightly higher level. The Shanghai Composite took the next step lower while Emerging Markets moved toward the top of their range and the Volatility Index tested the floor again. The Equity Index ETF’s all moved higher before leveling and giving back a little on Friday. What does this mean for the coming week? Lets look at some charts.

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