Examining the Gold to Bonds Ratio
- Posted by Greg Harmon
- on November 9th, 2012
Gold priced in Bonds has been trending lower since topping in mid September. The ratio chart below using the ETF’s of Gold ($GLD) vs US Treasuries ($TLT) shows that downtrending channel. There are a few key areas coming up to watch for a potential change of character. First the bottom of the channel, currently at a ratio of 1.30. Next the 100 day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.31. Third the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.31. Next the remainder of the gap between 1.33 and
1.30. you get the picture, the 1.30 level is important. A move below 1.30, breaking the channel would be very bearish with a target of 1.22 or another 6% lower. There is 61.8% Fibonacci at 1.28 along the way and another gap to 1.24 as possible support. But all indicators support further downside. It would take a move over 1.35 to change that thinking and over the top of the channel, currently at 1.39 to reverse it to a bullish bias. Until then more weakness for Golds in terms of Bonds.
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Gregory W. Harmon CMT, CFA, has traded in the Securities markets since 1986. He has held senior positions including Head of Global Trading, Head of Product Development, Head of Strategy and Director of Equity. (More)
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