The 200 Day Moving Average Says Buckle Up
- Posted by Greg Harmon
- on November 8th, 2012
There are many tools technical traders use to look for confirmation of moves, trends and reversals. One I use is the percentage of stocks that are trading over their 200 day Simple moving Average (SMA). The chart below shows this for the last 9 years with the area chart behind it being the S&P 500 for comparison. Notice first that the two are very highly correlated. But also notice that the bottoms in the market have occurred when the percentage of stocks over their 200 day SMA has
shrunk to at least 45%. This was the level in the relatively calm 2004 to 2007 period. Since then it has been much lower with the 4 bottoms coming at levels of 1, 26, and 8 before the 45 in June. At a level of 60.80 today this implies there is room for a lot more downside. One indicator, one view, but not a favorable one.
Join the Dragonfly Capital Views Premium Membership
Sign up here to get deeper analysis and nearly 50 trade ideas every week.
If you like what you see above sign up for deeper analysis and trading strategy by using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits page.
The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.blog comments powered by Disqus
Gregory W. Harmon CMT, CFA, has traded in the Securities markets since 1986. He has held senior positions including Head of Global Trading, Head of Product Development, Head of Strategy and Director of Equity. (More)
- Top Trade Ideas for the Week of September 2, 2014: The Rest Premium
- Top Trade Ideas for the Week of September 2, 2014: The Best
- Should Trading and Investing Really Not be Fun?
- SPY Trends and Influencers: Monthly Edition August into September 2014
- SPY Trends and Influencers August 30, 2014
- Macro Month in Review/Preview August into September 2014
- Macro Week in Review/Preview August 29, 2014
- Premium Earnings 8-29-14
- Stocks and Bonds Rising Together – Its Not So Strange
- Keep It Simple: Ford Stock Is Rising So Buy It