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Macro Month in Review/Preview September into October 2012

Last month in this space my Monthly Macro Review/Preview had the monthly outlook suggesting the upside for Gold, Crude Oil and US Treasuries would continue while the US Dollar Index looked better lower. Both the Dollar Index and Crude could consolidate further, and Copper and Natural Gas looked to be in ranges as well with the Natural Gas biased lower. The Shanghai Composite and Emerging Markets looked to continue to move lower as well, with Emerging Markets possibly consolidating, while the German DAX looked to continue to the upside. Volatility could go either way but looked to remain low with a drift higher. Despite the uncertainty that comes from the Dollar and Treasuries diverging, the Equity Index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ were set up to continue higher in the coming months, but with consolidation a strong possibility in the near term for all but the QQQ. How does an additional month impact the longer term picture? Let’s look at some charts.

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