SPY Trends and Influencers September 29, 2012
- Posted by Greg Harmon
- on September 29th, 2012
Last week’s review of the macro market indicators saw, heading into the first week of Autumn the market remained strong but with a few caution flags showing up. Gold ($GLD) looked to continue higher with Crude Oil ($USO) continuing to pullback in the uptrend. The US Dollar Index ($UUP) continued to look week despite consolidating this week while US Treasuries ($TLT) consolidated with a bias lower. The Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) looked horrible making new lows and nothing positive in the charts with Emerging Markets ($EEM) consolidating at resistance in the uptrend. Volatility ($VIX) looked to remain low paving the way for the equity index ETF’s $SPY, $IWM and $QQQ, to continue higher. This was supported by the view of a lower Dollar Index and lower Treasuries. The Index ETF’s themselves all appeared strong and held through Options Expiration, but may continue to consolidate.
The week played out with Gold and Crude Oil rolling lower only to recover Thursday and move back higher into the consolidation ranges. The US Dollar continued to drift higher in its consolidation while Treasuries may have found resistance in their run up. The Shanghai Composite made new lows before bouncing Friday and Emerging Markets moved in a tight range. Volatility drifted higher but remained subdued. The Equity Index ETF’s gave up some ground and are holding near their 20 day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). What does this mean for the coming week? Lets look at some charts.
The SPY fell out of its bull flag on Tuesday and spent the rest of the week holding support at the 20 day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also fell from a technically overbought condition back to the mid line, remaining in bullish territory for now. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (MACD) is negative and growing, giving a downward bias in the short term, but the trend is clearly higher and remains so, since the June 4th low. This is clear when looking at the weekly chart – an unfettered trend higher. But it is also showing some separation from the rising uptrend support. The RSI on this timeframe is also trending higher, but the kink lower recently is starting to get large. The MACD is positive but it is also starting to fade. Some weakness is showing. Support lower comes at 142 and 139.25 followed by 138. Under 138 is bearish and looks for 134.80 as support. Resistance higher is found at 147.40 and then the Measured Move is complete at 149.07. Short Term Pullback Within the Uptrend.
As the 4th Quarter begins look there are more signs of short term weakness in the Equity markets. Gold looks strong though and ready to move higher while Crude Oil has an upward bias but needs to confirm it. The US Dollar Index looks poised to continue the bounce in the downtrend while US Treasuries are biased higher, but consolidating. The Shanghai Composite is set up to continue its bounce in the downtrend with Emerging Markets looking to continue lower off of resistance. Volatility looks to remain subdued though making the picture for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ, mixed. Low Volatility gives a tailwind, but rising US Dollar and Treasuries give Equities a downside bias. The charts of the SPY, IWM and QQQ break the tie by supporting a short term pullback within their uptrends. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trade’m well
Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview September 28, 2012
Dragonfly Capital Views Anniversary Celebration
For a limited time the Opportunity to join the Dragonfly Capital Views Premium Membership on an Annual basis is available for only $600.
This is 20% off of the standard annual subscription price and nearly 45% off of a rolling monthly membership! Don’t miss this limited opportunity! Sign up here.
Want to learn more about Dragonfly Capital Views?
If you like what you see above sign up for deeper analysis and trading strategy by using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits page.
The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.blog comments powered by Disqus
Gregory W. Harmon CMT, CFA, has traded in the Securities markets since 1986. He has held senior positions including Head of Global Trading, Head of Product Development, Head of Strategy and Director of Equity. (More)
- Dragonfly Capital Views Performance through August 2015
- Parsley Energy is cooking with herbs
- Premium Earnings 9-3-15
- 7 Facts about the S&P 500
- Is there an upper limit to Limited Brands stock?
- Premium Earnings 9-2-15
- What is next for the Euro
- One of the best buys out there, Best Buy
- Premium Earnings 9-1-15
- Dead Cats Don’t Bounce