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Macro Week in Review/Preview August 31, 2012

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators saw heading into the unofficial last week of Summer, Gold and Crude Oil poised to continue higher with a chance of consolidation for either. The US Dollar Index seemed biased lower in the uptrend while US Treasuries might move in a tight range. The Shanghai Composite looked lower still and Emerging Markets looked like consolidation or small pullback within the uptrend. Volatility looked to remain subdued keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ. The whole picture, except for some risk if Treasuries pop higher, sets up positive for equities. The charts of the Index ETF’s were not so certain though. The SPY and QQQ both looked much better to the upside especially in the longer timeframe but the IWM seemed more comfortable in a range for the time being with an upward bias.

The week played out with Gold consolidating in a bull flag and Crude Oil dipping slightly. The US Dollar Index and Treasuries consolidated most of the week. All of that changed Friday with Gold, Oil, and Treasuries leaping while the Dollar fell. The Shanghai Composite continued to move lower along with Emerging Markets. Volatility continued the bounce off of the lows but remained subdued. With all this the Equity Index ETF’s remained in a tight range. What does this mean for the coming week? Lets look at some charts.

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