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Macro Month in Review/Preview July into August 2012

Last month in this space my Monthly Macro Review/Preview heading into the back half of the year the monthly outlook suggested downside for Gold and consolidation for Copper, while Crude Oil looked lower with Natural Gas rebounding, reversing their long term positions. US Treasuries and the US Dollar Index looked ready to continue higher. The Shanghai Composite and Emerging Markets looked to continue to consolidate or move lower while the DAX consolidated with an upside bias. Volatility could go either way but looked to remain above the lower range experienced in the last six months with the VIX in a wide range between 15 and 28. Despite the strength of the Dollar Index and Treasuries, the Equity Index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ were set up to continue higher in the coming months. There was also a caution that it is not likely that Treasuries, the Dollar Index and Equities all continue higher for long, so look for signs of a breakdown. How does an additional month impact the longer term picture? Let’s look at some charts.

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