Macro Week in Review/Preview June 15, 2012

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on June 15th, 2012

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators saw heading into the options expiration week the tone of the market had lightened but not quite turned bullish. Gold was back to being an enigma consolidating in the short term within the intermediate downturn in the long term upward trend while Crude Oil looked to head lower, perhaps consolidating in the very short term. Treasuries and the US Dollar Index looked to further pullback or consolidate their recent gains in their uptrends. The Shanghai Composite was on the verge of a big move lower while Emerging Markets continued to consolidate in their downtrend, perhaps ready to reverse. The Volatility Index continued to be biased to the upside but not in a strong manner. These influencers created the environment for the Equity Index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ to continue their bounce higher. Their charts were more cautious though with the SPY looking the best followed by the QQQ and finally the IWM. Once again the US Dollar Index and Treasuries would likely drive Equities, so a strong reversal back higher by either or both would change the equity bias back to bearish for the week.

The week played out with Gold moving higher, but within last weeks range while Crude Oil consolidated towards the low end of its recent range. The US Dollar continued to digest gains while Treasuries seem to have bottomed. The Shanghai Composite drifted sideways while Emerging Markets are testing resistance. Volatility continued to hold it higher base over 20. The Equity Index ETF’s started the week all in a huff about going lower only to move sideways after that. What does this mean for the coming week? Lets look at some charts.

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