Macro Week in Review/Preview March 31, 2012

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators saw as the last week of the first quarter of 2012 came around Gold going back to its old confusion, looking sideways in the intermediate term downtrend in the long term uptrend while Crude Oil consolidated in the 104.81-110 range with a bias higher. Both the US Dollar Index and US Treasuries were biased to the downside in the intermediate term but Treasuries might continue to rally short term. The Shanghai Composite looked to continue lower while Emerging Markets were at support and losing that would follow lower. The Volatility Index still had a harder road to move in the bias direction lower but showed no signs of rising anytime soon. These influencers created a backdrop for the US Equity Index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ to continue to consolidate with in their bullish trends. Their charts tended to agree but for the week the SPY and QQQ showed signs that the pullback might continue.

The week began with Gold bouncing but staying in the recent range under 1700 moving mainly sideways while Crude Oil fell out of the range lower. The US Dollar moved lower and then consolidated while Treasuries continued to drift higher. The Shanghai Composite fell hard while Emerging Markets drifted lower to end the week. Volatility rose slightly but remained in its low range. The Equity Index ETF’s all gapped higher Monday only to fill those gap by Thursday with the exception of the ever-strong QQQ. What does this mean for the coming week? Lets look at some charts.

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