Next of the Discount Kings – Cost Plus
- Posted by Greg Harmon
- on November 17th, 2011
Family Dollar Outlets, $FDO, reported a few weeks back, Dollar Tree, $DLTR, today, the next in the line of ‘cheaper than Walmart’ stores to report is Cost Plus, $CPWM. This stock does not offer good liquidity in the options market so we offered no play on it. But let’s take a look to see how it might react and how you can prepare.
The weekly chart above shows the big run up in an ascending wedge from 2009 until breaking it in May this year. Since then it has been trending lower. But the last 5 weeks have been building a bull flag within that move. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved higher up to the mid line but has been unable to break into bullish territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned positive. With the Simple Moving Averages (SMA) running mostly sideways there is not a consensus view to the next move on this timeframe. Moving in to the daily chart below shows that the flag stalled the move higher upon reaching the falling 100 day SMA. It also shows that this flag has been going on for a long time and the RSI is now testing the mid line from above while the MACD has given up the ghost and turned negative. Thursday’s Bearish engulfing candle also is a sign that the short term is looking lower.
The clear focus for this name is the resolution of the bull flag. It is likely to resolve tomorrow with the earnings catalyst. if it breaks down expect a retrace eventually below the 50 day SMA. A break out higher has a price objective of 10.50. Grab some coffee and fire up the computer early to be ready.
If you want to know how I would trade these names or for more ideas and deeper analysis, use the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits feed and on chartly.
If you like what you see above sign up for deeper analysis and trading strategy by using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits page.
The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.blog comments powered by Disqus
Gregory W. Harmon CMT, CFA, has traded in the Securities markets since 1986. He has held senior positions including Head of Global Trading, Head of Product Development, Head of Strategy and Director of Equity. (More)
- Top Trade Ideas for the Week of May 26, 2015: The Best
- How Last Week’s Top 10 Performed
- SPY Trends and Influencers May 23, 2015
- Macro Week in Review/Preview May 22, 2015
- And so ends the first 5 years…..
- Shanghai Surprise?
- Big AZZ consolidations can power big moves
- Premium Earnings 5-21-15
- Germany is Unstoppable
- Watson is rising to fill the gap