Top Trade Ideas for the Week of September 6, 2011: The Best
- Posted by Greg Harmon
- on September 5th, 2011
After reviewing over 900 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. This week’s list contains the first five below to get you started early. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Saturday which looks like the moves that revealed themselves Friday will continue. Gold and US Treasuries are ready to continue higher. Crude Oil looks poised to drop further and the US Dollar Index to move sideways in the top of its range. The Shanghai Composite and Emerging Markets look to continue lower. Volatility looks to continue elevated with the US Equity Index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ ready to continue lower in their bear flags. US Treasuries breaking out and Gold racing higher again could be the catalyst for a break of the bear flags lower. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trade’m well.
Here are the first 5 ideas for the week, to get you started:
Agilent Technologies, Ticker: $A
Agilent Technologies printed a solid Double Top at 38 and is now heading lower. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) bounced lower off of the mid line and is pointing down and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is beginning to roll lower. The first support comes at 32 followed by 30. If it falls under 30 then there is some support at 29 but it would be a break of the bear flag with a target of 12 lower. Use the gap back up at 35.25 as a stop.
AOL, Ticker: $AOL
AOL showed topping tails Wednesday and Thursday last week and then headed lower Friday. The RSI is moving and sloping back lower while the MACD is fading. All of the Simple Moving Averages (SMA) are sloping lower. Everything points down. With a stop at 15, this can be played short to support at 12.8, followed by 11.8, 11.1 and then 10.20. Move you stop down to just above the last target as it moves through them lower. Short Interest is elevated at about 10% so manage this carefully or consider buying the September 14 Strike Puts near 50 cents (last quoted Friday at 0.30/0.55) to limit the risk of a short squeeze.
CTC Media, Ticker: $CTCM
CTC Media is falling out of the bear flag lower. The falling RSI and fading MACD support more downside. There is support lower under 14.50 at 13.5, followed by 12.5 and 12.20. The price target out of the bear flag is 10.50. Use a stop just above 14.50 and tighten it as the price falls through support levels.
NXP Semiconductors, Ticker: $NXPI
NXP Semiconductors is in a downtrend that has fond some support at 15.90, creating a descending triangle. A break under 15.90 finds support lower at the 14.00-14.30 range followed by 13 and then 12. The RSI is moving sideways in bearish territory and the MACD has been flat for a month. Wait for the break down to short and place a stop above 15.90. If it moves over 17 with increased volume you can get long and look for a move to resistance first at 19 and then 20.20.
Sonic Corp, Ticker: $SONC
Sonic Corp has been in a choppy bear flag between 8.75 and 9.75. Currently it is testing the bottom support of the flag and if it falls under 8.75 then support comes next at 8.5 followed by 7.5 and then the bear flag target of 6.00. The RSI is pointing lower and the MACD has just crossed negative, supporting more downside. If it holds at 8.75 then look for a move back through 9.25 resistance to the top rail at 9.75. Short Interest is elevated at about 7%, but the options are too illiquid to use as an alternative. Be diligent on a short.
Up Next: The Rest
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Gregory W. Harmon CMT, CFA, has traded in the Securities markets since 1986. He has held senior positions including Head of Global Trading, Head of Product Development, Head of Strategy and Director of Equity. (More)
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