Macro Week in Review/Preview February 25, 2011
- Posted by Greg Harmon
- on February 25th, 2011
Last week’s review of the macro market indicators looked for Gold to continue higher and Crude Oil to decide if it wants 100 after a break above 88.50 again. The US Dollar Index sought support and US Treasuries fought to maintain support both to avert disaster. The Chinese market looked higher with Emerging Markets continuing to consolidate with a bias higher if they finally break the range. Volatility looks to continue to be muted facilitating a continuation of the trend higher in the US equity ETF’s.
Gold and Oil did move higher, right away, as there was some excitement over the weekend and spilling out into the week. The US Dollar Index tried to bounce but is still floundering near support while US Treasuries moved higher. Volatility moved up sending global equities on a three day purge but still ended the week as a teenager. And those equities recovered more than half of the losses on Friday. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.
Gold had a strong week gapping higher on Tuesday outside of the Bollinger bands and then holding the gap the rest of the week. The daily chart is looking like a quadruple top near 1422 resistance, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) starting to turn down and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator decreasing. The daily chart is at a crossroads, above 1422 it has clear air and the bundle of Simple Moving Averages (SMA’s) acting as a magnet at support near 1366. The weekly chart also shows a crossroads. After breaking through the 1376 level last week, now support, it printed a doji star this week. Note also that the Bollinger bands are becoming very tight on the weekly chart. But the weekly chart also has an RSI that is moving up with room to spare and a MACD that is improving. The trend remains up for Gold and my bias for a break is to the upside. The weekly chart suggests that the first resistance above 1433 will come at 1478.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Daily
West Texas Intermediate Crude Weekly
Crude Oil blew up through the 93 resistance area and has held above it the rest of the week as support. The long upper shadow would suggest that it must consolidate for a while before it can move higher or at least a slow move up. The Bollinger band expansion on the daily chart will allow for this. The MACD is strong but the RSI is turning lower after a fast move to the technically overbought area. This also supports the possibility of a consolidation. The weekly chart has indications that Crude Oil is ready to head higher. The RSI is back above the rising trend line and headed up as the Bollinger bands area expanding. The next resistance comes at 100 and then the Fibonacci retracement of 61.8% of the move from the 147.90 spike down to the December 2008 lows, at 104.82.
US Dollar Index Daily
US Dollar Index Weekly
The US Dollar Index flirted with disaster again this week, kissing the 3 year rising trend line at 77.02, but in the end it held. On the daily chart the RSI is turning up, but barely and not far from being technically oversold. It needs to slope much more steeply higher to call for a reversal. The MACD has crossed down and is getting more negative, and the Bollinger bands are expanding as it hits the bottom. The weekly chart offers no solace. The downtrend continued this week and the RSI and MACD are suggesting more downside to come. Also the SMA’s on both charts are sloping lower. No good news here. If it breaks the uptrend line at 77.06 look for support at 76.24 first then 75.60 and 74.80 before a retest of the 2008 lows near 71.50. If by some chance the trend holds then resistance comes at 77.82 followed by 78 and 78.65.
iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bond Fund Daily
iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bond Fund Weekly
US Treasuries had a great week and look ready to continue it next week. The TLT launched off of the Hammer printed on the daily chart last Friday, through the 5 month down trend line and finished the week on its highs above the 50 day SMA for the first time since October. The RSI on the daily chart is running higher toward the 70 level and the MACD is increasing. The weekly chart is even better printing a very bullish Marubozu candle that started above the 5 month downtrend line and finished above the 100 week SMA. The weekly RSI is launching higher towards the mid line with a near vertical slope and the MACD is improving toward even. The next resistance for this is at 93.11 on the daily chart and then the 94 area.
The Shanghai Composite broke out of a falling wedge a few weeks ago but then fell when it neared resistance at 2950. It is now in a bear flag on the daily chart and printed a bearish engulfing candle Friday. The 100 day SMA is acting as support and there are many other SMA below to slow it before the 2695 previous support/resistance level. The RSI is holding over 50 for now but the MACD is crossing down. Conflicting signals about the future. The weekly chart gives another view of the conflict. SSEC is testing the top of a symmetrical triangle at 2900. If it gets through then the target would be over 4400. The first resistance areas along the way come at 3050 and 3150. If it rejects at the triangle top then support comes at 2785 and 2665. The RSI and MACD hovering around the mid line and zero give no firm conclusions either. Watch the patterns.
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Daily
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Weekly
Emerging Markets measured by the EEM had a lower week. As in past weeks the price bounced around a bit but generally clustered lower within the downward channel. It is now looking like an ‘M’ pattern is forming on the daily chart which would suggest a move much lower to near 40. This could be negated by a move through the down channel resistance at 45.80 and back towards 48. The RSI is pointing up but still not through the mid line and the MACD is trying to get back to zero, so there is a possibility of going through the channel. The weekly chart is not quite as bleak. EEM printed a Hammer candle this week. It also has an RSI that although pointing lower, is still in bullish territory and has been there for many months. The MACD is looking lower though on the weekly. There is support at 43.10 and then 40 lower on the weekly chart. The body of evidence suggests the downside is the easier path for the next week.
The Volatility Index got a big pop early in the week and then settled back lower but well above where it closed last week. It bounced off of the technically overbought level during this time and tested the 200 day SMA. A big percentage movement but not really that big nominally, perhaps a range expansion. Resistance comes at 21.25 and then 23 higher with support at 18 and then 15.50 lower. The weekly chart puts this in the proper perspective. The move did not get the RSI over the mid line or materially change the flat lined MACD. The long shadowed doji ended the week with in the range where the VIX had been just 3 weeks prior. Look for continued subdued action in the VIX with perhaps a slight upside drift in the next week, but not likely beyond the 23 resistance on the daily chart or 24 from the weekly chart.
The SPY started its first pullback since November this week and recovered more than half of it by the close Friday. The MACD on the daily chart has leveled and the RSI is hooking higher off of the mid line, suggesting the future path is higher. It is also back above the 6 month rising trend line and the 20 day SMA. The next resistance to the upside is at 134.12. The weekly chart still has a couple of cracks in it though. It printed a Hanging Man candle this week with the RSI in overbought territory and looking lower. The MACD is also drifting lower. The trend is still higher but the euphoria from the daily chart bleeds out when moving to the weekly chart. The bias for next week is to the upside but if it does go lower again there is support at the 130 are and then 128.
The IWM had an even stronger finish retracing over 61.8% of the move lower begun Tuesday and printing a bullish Marubozu Friday back over the 81.57 support. The RSI is hooking higher off of the mid line and the MACD has reversed and is improving. The next resistance to the upside comes near 84 if this continues. Moving to the weekly chart the same cracks as in the SPY appear. The IWM printed a Hanging Man candle with an RSI that is overbought and slanting lower and a MACD that is slightly falling. Not the end of the run but cause to take notice. It did finish above the 100% retracement of the down move from 2007 through 2009 and has all the SMA rising both of which are positive. If the Hanging Man is confirmed and it heads lower then there is support lower at 79.10 and then 77.40.
The QQQQ’s paint an identical picture. The daily chart shows a retracement of more than 50% of the week’s down move ending above the 20 day SMA with a RSI hooking back higher and a MACD that bottomed and is improving. The next resistance higher comes at the gap 58.13 and then 59. The weekly chart again brings in the bad news. Although the uptrend continues with positive sloping SMA’s it printed a Hanging Man this week with an RSI that is technically overbought and currently pointing lower and a MACD that is drifting lower. Again the trend remains higher, but if the Hanging Man is confirmed there is support lower at 56 and then 54.26.
So next week looks to bring more upside for Gold and Oil. The US Dollar Index is still in critical territory on long term support and looking lower with US Treasuries looking stronger still. Both the Chinese and Emerging markets are set up to continue lower. The Volatility Index may drift in a wider range but is not expected to move materially higher. The US Equity ETF’s, SPY, IWM and QQQQ, all look to continue their moves higher but with caution advised for a possible confirmation of the Hanging Man and a continued short term correction. Use this information as you continue your planning for the coming week and trade’m well.
If you like what you see above sign up for deeper analysis and trading strategy by using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits page.
The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.blog comments powered by Disqus
Gregory W. Harmon CMT, CFA, has traded in the Securities markets since 1986. He has held senior positions including Head of Global Trading, Head of Product Development, Head of Strategy and Director of Equity. (More)
Dragonfly Capital Updates
- Premium Earnings 6-19-13
- This Fed Statement Should Be Important
- Stay Crafty When You Are Thirsty
- Premium Earnings 6-18-13 Part 2: FedEx
- Premium Earnings 6-18-13
- Risk On or Just Baby Steps to the Sleeping Bear’s Cave
- Arch Coal is Worthless
- Premium Earnings 6-17-13
- Top Trade Ideas for the Week of June 17, 2013: Bonus Idea
- Top Trade Ideas for the Week of June 17, 2013: The Rest