Top Trade Ideas January 31, 2011: Bonus Idea

Here is your Bonus Idea. Did you notice that first set of ideas were all long in the energy sector and the second set were all short in the Consumer Discretionary sector. This is a pairs trade involving the XLE and XLY ETF’s.

XLE vs XLY

The ratio chart of the XLE to XLY has been creating a ‘W’ pattern and is in the rising right leg. 1.85 – 1.875 has been support so if it continues to hold above there look for the ratio to test resistance at the previous support level of 1.93. Through that level it can run to 2.00 or complete the pattern at 2.15. The Relative Strength Index of the ratio has been strongly in the bullish region without becoming too overbought, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is positive and crossing higher.

The trade would be to short 2 lots of XLY against long one lot of XLE, using the levels above as stops and targets.

The First 5

The Rest

These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Saturday which looks to be decision time for Gold, and a continuation higher for Crude Oil. The US Dollar Index looks to move higher this week and US Treasuries looking lower. The Shanghai Composite is also at a decision point but emerging markets look to move lower. Volatility looks to rise in the short term, making it easier for the equity index ETF’s to continue their recent down moves within the uptrend. Sector Analysis showed that the strongest sectors are Energy and Industrials and the weakest is Consumer Discretionary.

Trade’m well!

(As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits feed and on chartly.)

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The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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